Semivarying Coefficient Models for Capture-recapture Data: Colony Size Estimation for the Little Penguin

Abstract

To accommodate seasonal effects that change from year to year into models for the size of an open population we consider a time-varying coefficient model. We fit this model to a capture-recapture data set collected on the little penguin in south-eastern Australia over a 25 year period, using Jolly--Seber type estimators and nonparametric P-spline techniques. The time-varying coefficient model identified strong changes in the seasonal pattern across the years which we further examine using functional data analysis techniques. Joint work with Jakub Stoklosa of The University of New South Wales and Peter Dann from the Phillip Island Nature Parks