Statistical Reliability and Validity on Methods of Public Opinion Poll in Japan 日本輿論調查方法的可靠性與妥當性的統計學檢證

Abstract

The opinion poll based the statistical thinking was proposed by Gallup in the United States in 1930s, and has been introduced in Japan by the Allied Powers General Headquarters(GHQ) after World War II.? Since the public opinion has become into a means to the democratic government in the modern Japanese society, how to secure the reliability and validity of an opinion poll has considered as an important issue in the past decades. This talk focuses on verifying the feature and change of sampling technique in Japanese opinion poll, and also discusses the influences of questionnaire style, completion rate of interview, and post weighted tally. Keywords: stratified multi-stage sampling, random digit dialing (RDD), completion rate of interview, post weighted tally