Bayesian Forecasting of Bounded Poisson Distributed Time Series

Abstract

This research models and forecasts bounded ordinal time series data that can appear in various contexts, such as air quality index (AQI) levels, economic situations, and credit ratings. This class of time series data is characterized by being bounded and exhibiting a concentration of large probabilities on a few categories, such as states 0 and 1. We propose using Bayesian methods for modelling and forecasting in zero-one-inflated bounded Poisson autoregressive (ZOBPAR) models, which are specifically designed to capture the dynamic changes in such ordinal time series data. We innovatively extend models to incorporate exogenous variables, marking a new direction in Bayesian inferences and forecasting. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed methods accurately estimate all unknown parameters, and the posterior means of parameter estimates are robustly close to the actual values as the sample size increases. In the empirical study we investigate three datasets of daily AQI levels from three stations in Taiwan and consider five competing models for the real examples. The results show that the proposed method reasonably predicts the AQI levels in the testing period, especially for the Miaoli station.

Keywords: ordinal time series data; zero-one-inflated; bounded Poisson distribution; integer-valued GARCH model; air quality index.

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